Macroeconomic Trends in South Africa REPORT - April 2023

The IMF (2023) and UNCTAD (2023) in their April reports on global macroeconomic trends concur that, following the financial sector turmoil in the USA and Europe in March 2023, high levels of uncertainty remain over the outlook of the global economy. Consequently, both organisations downgraded their latest forecasts for the growth of the world economy in 2023 – the IMF by one percentage point compared with its forecast of January 2022 and 0.1 percentage point compared with its January 2023 forecast; and UNCTAD, by 0.1 percentage point compared with its October 2022 forecast.[1] Moreover, both organisations argue that, overall, risks are to the downside. New episodes of financial turmoil and/or the escalation of the war in Ukraine, for instance, would contribute to even greater uncertainty and a worsening in global economic conditions. South Africa, which has in the recent past suffered from multiple shocks and is already performing poorly, will be further affected if the scenario of greater turbulence materialises. It is exposed to such turbulence through both close trade and financial links with the rest of the world.